"Finance is dominated by randomness. Randomness is everything. Because randomness is everything, you need to be uncertain. You need to have a lack of conviction and dogma in certain things. Because you want to be able to prove certain things are wrong." (Ewan Kirk - Cantab Capital)
You like the idea of proving a strategy is broken rather than it is right. This was the question Michael Covel asked Ewan Kirk of Cantab Capital during one of his recent trend following mega episodes. The answer was fascinating: I don't think I'm the first person to come up with that. Effectively that is the scientific … Continue reading Let’s kill it!
Expert Opinion, the latest memo of Howard Marks is once more an interesting read. The reasoning throughout the memo resonates well with me since I believe it is worthwhile for a (discretionary) money manager to: (try to) understand the economy (try to) figure out the expectations embedded in the market bet small most of the time bet … Continue reading That’s why they’re called surprises (Howard Marks – Expert Opinion)
From time to time, I grab a book from a few years ago and browse through it. This time 'The New Paradigm for Financial Markets' of George Soros (2008) was the lucky one. Although the Alchemy of Finance is the standard book here, this little book also contains some nice wordings. As a side note: AQR … Continue reading Understanding the world we live in (the Soros version)
At money management firms, the investment decision making process is one of the crucial elements. While the investment process/philosophy itself often gets lots of attention, the investment committee making the investment decisions does not always get the same level of scrutiny. Being part of an investment committee myself, I experienced the pro's and con's of making investment … Continue reading Organizational alpha: Investment Committees
This morning, I was listening to a recent podcast of Tim Ferris (Becoming the best version of you). I didn't really expect to get specific investment wisdom out of it. Around minute 27 however, Adam Robinson starts answering the question whether he blocks any particular things in his agenda. After mentioning lifting weights, cycling and … Continue reading It doesn’t make sense